The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently announced its ongoing efforts to rebase Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a comprehensive exercise designed to provide an accurate and updated estimate of the nation’s economic structure. As the primary authority for official statistics in Nigeria, the NBS plays a pivotal role in coordinating the national statistical system, advising all levels of government on statistical matters, and ensuring the collection, analysis, and dissemination of reliable data. The rebasing initiative forms part of its broader mission to develop a comprehensive socio-economic database and act as the country’s statistical focal point with international agencies.
Rebasing GDP is an intricate process that involves updating the base year used to calculate constant price estimates. This exercise is not merely technical but essential to reflect the true changes in the prices of goods and services produced within the economy over time. The 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) recommends rebasing national accounts every five years to ensure statistical relevance. The objective is to provide a more accurate picture of economic growth, structural changes, and emerging patterns in consumption and production.
The decision to select 2019 as the new base year was informed by its relative economic stability and the availability of comprehensive data. Subsequent years, such as 2020 through 2022, were deemed unsuitable due to the economic instabilities brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and other global and domestic challenges, following guidelines from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Key surveys and sector-specific administrative data conducted during 2019 further bolstered the robustness of this choice, ensuring that the base year represents a solid benchmark for the Nigerian economy.
To enhance the quality of the rebased GDP estimates, the NBS adhered to international standards and frameworks. These include the 2008 System of National Accounts, the International Standard for Industrial Classification of Economic Activities (ISIC) version 4.0, the Central Product Classification (CPC) version 2.0, and the Balance of Payment Manual. Central to the process was the compilation of a detailed Supply and Use Table (SUT), a comprehensive matrix detailing 46 industries and 217 products. This table provides a nuanced breakdown of economic activities, serving as the foundation for recalibrating GDP estimates.
Data collection for the rebasing exercise drew from a diverse array of sources, including the Nigeria Living Standards Survey (NLSS) of 2019 and 2023, which provided critical insights into household expenditure and the informal sector. Additional inputs came from the National Business Sample Census and Survey of Establishments (2021) and the National Agriculture Sample Census and Sample Survey (2022). To address specific gaps, special studies were conducted in areas such as Research and Development (R&D), water supply and waste management, and trade and transport margins.
Collaboration with key Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) further enhanced the depth and accuracy of data collection. Partner organizations such as the Federal Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy contributed valuable administrative data. New areas of economic activity, previously unmeasured, were also incorporated. These include digital economy activities, the operations of modular refineries, quarrying and other mining activities, and domestic households as employers of labour. Notably, the exercise sought to account for illegal and hidden activities, providing a more holistic picture of economic dynamics.
The implications of the rebasing exercise are far-reaching. It is expected to lead to significant changes in the measured size and structure of Nigeria’s economy. Metrics such as the tax-to-GDP ratio, debt-to-GDP ratio, and per capita income will likely be recalibrated to reflect the new data. The inclusion of emerging sectors and enhanced data coverage underscores the evolving nature of the Nigerian economy, characterized by structural shifts and the introduction of new products and services.
Rebasing GDP is not merely a statistical exercise but a crucial tool for policymakers, investors, and international stakeholders. It offers a clearer understanding of economic growth patterns, aids in the formulation of effective fiscal and monetary policies, and enhances Nigeria’s competitiveness in the global economic arena. However, the success of this ambitious initiative hinges on the full commitment and cooperation of all stakeholders. The meticulous groundwork laid by the NBS promises to deliver the most accurate and detailed estimate of the current size and structure of Nigeria’s economy. As Nigeria positions itself for economic transformation, the rebased GDP figures will provide critical insights into its potential and challenges, charting a course for sustainable development and inclusive growth.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has embarked on the significant task of rebasing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an essential process aimed at providing an updated and precise assessment of the nation’s economic structure. As Nigeria’s authoritative source of official statistics, the NBS not only coordinates the national statistical system but also ensures the dissemination of reliable data that informs decision-making at all levels of government. This exercise is part of its broader mandate to develop a comprehensive socio-economic database and establish Nigeria as a focal point for statistical collaboration with international agencies.
GDP rebasing involves updating the base year for calculating constant price estimates, ensuring that economic measurements reflect current realities. Adhering to the recommendations of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA), the NBS selected 2019 as the new base year due to its relative economic stability and the availability of comprehensive data. The inclusion of data from 2020 to 2022 was avoided due to disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and other economic instabilities. This carefully chosen benchmark aligns with international best practices and offers a robust foundation for recalibrating GDP estimates.
The rebasing process has been guided by international standards, including the SNA 2008 and frameworks such as the International Standard for Industrial Classification (ISIC) and the Central Product Classification (CPC). A cornerstone of the exercise is the compilation of a detailed Supply and Use Table (SUT), which categorizes 46 industries and 217 products, providing a nuanced breakdown of economic activities. These measures ensure that the rebasing exercise captures the complexities of Nigeria’s evolving economy with precision and depth.
The data sources for the rebasing effort are diverse and comprehensive, drawing from surveys like the Nigeria Living Standards Survey (2019 and 2023), the National Business Sample Census (2021), and the National Agriculture Sample Census (2022). Special studies were conducted to address gaps in areas such as research and development, water management, and trade margins. Additionally, collaboration with key Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) enriched the data pool, enabling the inclusion of previously unmeasured activities such as the digital economy, modular refineries, and quarrying. This inclusive approach ensures that the rebased GDP reflects the true scale and scope of Nigeria’s economic activities, including informal and hidden sectors.
The implications of this exercise are transformative, reshaping perceptions of the size and structure of Nigeria’s economy. Metrics like the tax-to-GDP ratio, debt-to-GDP ratio, and per capita income will be recalibrated to reflect the newly captured economic realities. The rebasing will provide critical insights for policymakers, investors, and international stakeholders, enabling better fiscal planning and improved global competitiveness. By including emerging sectors and adjusting for structural changes, the NBS underscores the dynamism of Nigeria’s economy and its potential for growth.
In conclusion, the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP by the NBS is a vital statistical endeavor with far-reaching implications for economic planning and development. It highlights the evolving nature of Nigeria’s economy while providing a detailed and accurate economic portrait. The success of this initiative relies on the collaboration of all stakeholders and the rigorous methodologies employed by the NBS. As Nigeria positions itself for future growth, the rebased GDP will serve as a critical tool for identifying opportunities, addressing challenges, and steering the nation toward sustainable development and inclusive prosperity.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has embarked on the significant task of rebasing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an essential process aimed at providing an updated and precise assessment of the nation’s economic structure. As Nigeria’s authoritative source of official statistics, the NBS not only coordinates the national statistical system but also ensures the dissemination of reliable data that informs decision-making at all levels of government. This exercise is part of its broader mandate to develop a comprehensive socio-economic database and establish Nigeria as a focal point for statistical collaboration with international agencies.
GDP rebasing involves updating the base year for calculating constant price estimates, ensuring that economic measurements reflect current realities. Adhering to the recommendations of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA), the NBS selected 2019 as the new base year due to its relative economic stability and the availability of comprehensive data. The inclusion of data from 2020 to 2022 was avoided due to disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and other economic instabilities. This carefully chosen benchmark aligns with international best practices and offers a robust foundation for recalibrating GDP estimates.
The rebasing process has been guided by international standards, including the SNA 2008 and frameworks such as the International Standard for Industrial Classification (ISIC) and the Central Product Classification (CPC). A cornerstone of the exercise is the compilation of a detailed Supply and Use Table (SUT), which categorizes 46 industries and 217 products, providing a nuanced breakdown of economic activities. These measures ensure that the rebasing exercise captures the complexities of Nigeria’s evolving economy with precision and depth.
The data sources for the rebasing effort are diverse and comprehensive, drawing from surveys like the Nigeria Living Standards Survey (2019 and 2023), the National Business Sample Census (2021), and the National Agriculture Sample Census (2022). Special studies were conducted to address gaps in areas such as research and development, water management, and trade margins. Additionally, collaboration with key Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) enriched the data pool, enabling the inclusion of previously unmeasured activities such as the digital economy, modular refineries, and quarrying. This inclusive approach ensures that the rebased GDP reflects the true scale and scope of Nigeria’s economic activities, including informal and hidden sectors.
The implications of this exercise are transformative, reshaping perceptions of the size and structure of Nigeria’s economy. Metrics like the tax-to-GDP ratio, debt-to-GDP ratio, and per capita income will be recalibrated to reflect the newly captured economic realities. The rebasing will provide critical insights for policymakers, investors, and international stakeholders, enabling better fiscal planning and improved global competitiveness. By including emerging sectors and adjusting for structural changes, the NBS underscores the dynamism of Nigeria’s economy and its potential for growth.
In conclusion, the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP by the NBS is a vital statistical endeavour with far-reaching implications for economic planning and development. It highlights the evolving nature of Nigeria’s economy while providing a detailed and accurate economic portrait. The success of this initiative relies on the collaboration of all stakeholders and the rigorous methodologies employed by the NBS. As Nigeria positions itself for future growth, the rebased GDP will be critical for identifying opportunities, addressing challenges, and steering the nation toward sustainable development and inclusive prosperity.
• Angulu-Umoru is lead consultant at AUMU Associates.