As Nigeria’s opposition coalesces around the ADC, Gabriel Atumeyi examines the party’s efforts to gain popular acceptance ahead of the 2027 general elections
As alarm bells of the 2027 general elections beats faster with the recent adoption of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) by the National Opposition Coalition, an emergent large scale realignment of political forces in the country, a move inspired by the endless wranglings and antagonism within leading opposition parties in the country.
As expected the ADC’s official launching was a gathering of high profile gladiators and power brokers in the country. The likes of ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi. The likes of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, Senator Dino Melaye, former Benue State Governor Gabriel Suswam, former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola and former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha among others. Since its formal admission into A- class politics, its ranks as been growing at meteoric speed as new and aggrieved politicians and factions take up this new cross of national salvation aligning with a contentious national protem leadership under David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, a former Senate President and a former minister of the interior.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), and the resurgent Labour Party have beyond doubt failed the test. Even the SDP that made its attempt at being a new dominant force in the country, soon joined the list of controversies. The leading parties were reeling from their 2023 electoral defeats and couldn’t find their footings as factions played the game of chess and the masses watched helplessly.
The sudden resignation of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) after months of ups and downs, claims and counter claims to join his darling political project, the new African Democratic Congress (ADC) to lead the opposition coalition to ouster President Tinubu in 2027 shows the seriousness of the moment. This is coming just hours after the burial of former President Muhammadu Buhari in his hometown of Daura in Katsina, which witnessed an extraordinary show of solidarity amongst Nigeria’s political echelon.
A Growing Momentum
While the media landscape buzzed with excitement and speculations seeking a rigid permutation in an eventual presidential candidature structure, there are those who think the party should prioritize building itself from the bottom up to preclude the seeds of contradiction that has become the bane of party administration in the country, as the protem national Secretary himself puts it in his inaugural speech. “Our political landscape is plagued by parties that lack ideological depth. They are empty shells, merging and splitting not over policy or principle, but over power and personality,” he said.
Calling for accountability and commitment, Aregbesola urged members to support the party’s rebirth and reclaim the soul of Nigerian politics as a service to the people.
While such considerations are bound to linger further, there seem to be a consensus on the mission and immediate vision of the platform among key politicians in the opposition.
Tinubu government came to power promising big reforms, the outcomes have however not yet lived up to expectations, with spiralling cost of living crisis and pervasive insecurity. The man who rode on the back of the North to his glorious destiny, seems locked in an existential battle with the North for survival. While Tinubu has attempted to pacify and stabilize the party he inherited from Buhari, things didn’t always go the way he hoped. While Minister Wike may have hitherto held unrivalled and curious influence on the post 2023 opposition politics, preexisting tendencies in the ruling party also persevered and found succor and vibrancy in the opposition movement creating an explosive potential.
Becuse the cross fertilization of ideas and information was a potent contributor to the 2015 campaign plan with the resplendent amalgam of forces, it still seem an ever potent instrument in a task and cause of this nature especially in a rapidly shifting political landscape. As the party spreads to the four corners of the country, with increasing array and diversity of its ranks as leading regional politicians flock to its banner the 2027 election is taking shape quicker than expected.
What makes this opposition coalition a formidable configuration is that some of its leaders and promoters are former lieutenants and proteges of the incumbent, whose
masterstroke was fundamental to the founding of the APC, which was a marvel and precedent in national politics, the likes of Rauf Aregbesola, the former minister of interior, the likes of former Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi, the likes of Nasir El – rufai, and even Rotimi Amaechi. Many of whom held sway under former late President Muhammadu Buhari.
Together with others they will constitute the new opposition vanguard leading the strategic assault against Tinubu’s alleged tyranny and mismanagement of the country. Rotimi Amaechi, the former Governor of Rivers state was the Director General of President Muhammadu Buhari election campaign and Nasir El – rufai was a prominent players in President Tinubu’s election machinery. Rauf Aregbesola, a one time favourite of Tinubu’s political nucleus, has since broken ties and his on a quest for a rival legacy of his own, with his Omoluabi movement quickly evolving to becoming a dominant grassroot vehicle in the Southwest.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s grip on the Northeast seems to be unyielding as many prominent PDP and APC bigwigs scramble to pledge their fealty. The Southeast would certainly remain the sphere of influence of Peter Obi, another prominent ADC politician, who was the presidential candidate of the Labour party at the 2023 general election and came third at the poll.
Since 2019 Obi’s presence on the ballot has galvanized voters, especially urban and middle class voters, making him an indispensable force in the national political calculus. With the APC making incursions into the South South and South East, with Governor Eno of Akwa Ibom being the latest catch, and state of Emergency declaration in Rivers softening the ground for possible extension of the broom, the ADC platform has no doubt thrown open a convenient platform for disgruntled elements in the state and region to fight back. So far two former Rivers Governors are members of the ADC, Amaechi and Celestine Omeha. While Cross River is currently in the grip of the APC, this one time PDP stronghold like its sister state of Akwa Ibom is yet to be completely APC. The 2027 politics like the 2015 politics is dicey, as politicians then, many of whom are still involved now, are convinced and determined that whatever it takes had to be done for the conceivable change. The ADC has wasted no time to mount the field, contesting in the just concluded Lagos state local government election after setting up new leadership structures at the state and local government levels.
APC Fights Back
The ruling APC has come out to forcefully denounce the latest move by the opposition coalition, calling the platform nothing more than a conglomeration of strange bedfellows desperately seeking their way back to national reckoning out of sheer greed and self serving interest. While the APC seems to be taken by surprise by the fast pace of events that birthed the ADC it seems determined to fight and do whatever it takes to maintain its national dominance. The recent resignation of the former Kano state governor, Abdullahi Ganduje as national chairman of the party, is indicative of how far the party can go to balance itself internally and prepare for the all out battle with any type of opposition coalition. The APC which has a preponderance of state governors and national lawmakers, looks entrenched, even with the ADC rapidly gaining three national lawmakers, led by FCT Senator, Ireti Kingibe, formerly of the Labour Party.. While the ruling party shops for a new national chairman, it doesn’t seem to be in a hurry, as it wants the opposition to bear out its fangs.Ganduje got the chairmanship job easily as settlement for his role in the 2023 election and to save face after being routed by Kwankwaso in Kano state with his New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP). But with heightening stakes greater arithmetic is needed. Even the Vice President position seems ups for grabs if the words on the street are to go by. The 2027 election would be a fundamental test of Tinubu’s master political skill, as he will clashes with former allies in an epic encounter. And he will do it with a party striving to understand itself, where it stands, where it belongs and where it is going. The APC in its formation was a merger of three or four major factions in the country, the ACN, the CPC, the New PDP, and a faction of APGA, but so far the ACN tendency, a part of the CPC and a small motley appendage that transcends south south, south east seems to be what is left of the party.
The PDP Goes Under
The hitherto main opposition party, the PDP doubtlessly caught in the storm, with its rank ebbing at unprecedented rate. The last time something of this nature took place, it was the ruling party, and it was in a more orderly and predictable manner. This party which once held unrivaled sway on the national scene, has lost all credibility and his teetering on the brink. It was it seeming irredeemability that paved the way for the rise of the ADC.
At the height of its power, the PDP was the doyen of Nigerian political life, with former President Olusegun Obasanjo once prophesying that it would govern the country for fifty years. While the PDP national leadership and its very important Governors Forum is still very much intact, as no serving governor has officially joined the ADC bandwagon, but the rug seems to have been drawn from under them.
With the PDP under Umar Damagun and Nyesome Wike growing cold amid similar paralysis in both the Labour Party and the NNPP, the PDP Governors Forum sometimes assumed the leadership of the opposition movement under the chairmanship of the charismatic governor of Bauchi state, Bala Mohammad, with their regular monthly trans-regional meetings and alternative policy declarations.
But this all important organ of the party found it impossibly difficult to overcome the Wike conundrum and would have to pay the price for it. Since the declaration of the reformation of the ADC, the PDP has grown silent, as if watching to see how the hands of fate will play out. It is apparently caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, the party’s brand would have been the most formidable to challenge the APC in 2027, if it had resolved its differences and laundered its image in time given its antecedent and legacy in Nigeria’s democratic history. While it has consistently railed against the ruling party, it seems not to know which position to take against recalcitrant members of their own fold who have turned coat.
With the PDP now under the firm grip of Damagun and his ally, Nyesome Wike it may go into the 2027 general election as a strange creature of many spirits and colors if it fails to resolve pending issues in its fold. The PDP is still a platform with an exceptional brand prospect, if it seizes the opportunity to reform itself in time ahead of the grand contest. Until its leadership dissolve into the coalition, or aligns with it, the 2027 general election may end up a three way race.
Challenges Ahead
While the ADC has been making new friends and growing in influence, it still has to contend against a ruling party that has a majority of governors and national lawmakers, with structures across the country and access to public treasury. The ADC is a growing flame, still lacking grassroots structures, needing funding and grappling with divergent tendencies. The party which is yet to assume a definitive form would have to grapple with a number of challenges if it is to arrive at the destination of internal harmony and stability which is crucial if it is to give the APC a run for their money. But in the main time it continues to enjoy the goodwill of some sections of the Nigerian public who see the effort to dislodge the incumbent as a necessary project. Analysts opine that the ADC would have to win over the youth demography which has been a deciding factor in the general elections since 2015, who are more like to support a younger candidate like Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi. Zoning formula is also another challenge it will have to navigate in the months ahead. The zoning controversy has been a key determinant of political sentiments in the country in a politics beset by regional allegiances, with some in the party urging the presidential candidature to be zoned to the South to allow the zoning principle complete its full circle, others are insisting on open primaries. It is this same controversy that was responsible for the defeat of the PDP in 2023, and contributed in no small measure to its impending implosion. However, with the 2027 looming, Nigeria’s opposition faces a pivotal choice: Unite under the ADC or risk another Tinubu victory.